Coronavirus and the TMB/AV1

There is a lot of speculation about Coronavirus and how it will affect the TMB/AV1 this summer. I do not know what the future brings. None of us do.

However, there are a few things that I do know:

1. It is human nature to overreact. You only have to look at the financial markets to appreciate this: they overshoot on the way down and on the way up in reaction to bad and good news;
2. There will be a lot of cancellations. The propensity to overact will cause a lot of people to cancel TMB/AV1 plans too early. This decision is likely to be based on fear rather than facts;
3. If the TMB/AV1 refuges do open this summer, there are likely to be vacancies everywhere. This is unprecedented in the modern trekking era;
4. If the refuges do open, those who are ready and prepared will reap the benefit of the vacancies. Those who have mapped out their itineraries and are poised to book when the time is right will probably get their pick of the accommodation; and
5. If at all possible, the refuges on the TMB/AV1 will open. Mountain regions in the Alps are completely reliant on tourism. The loss of even part of a season hurts that economy and therefore it hurts the people. If they can open, they will. In fact they will be busting to do so. They will have made as many preparations as they can to be ready for the event if and when it happens. They need to open.

An ibex stays calm in the face of the Coronavirus. lol

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So here is my advice:

1. Keep calm: you do not know what is going to happen and you are unable to influence it; 
2. If you have already made bookings, make any decisions about cancellation at the very last minute: read the small print of your bookings. Make a note of all your key dates: when the next payment is due and when your cancellation dates are. Hell put it in a spreadsheet: it will take your mind off everything else! Keep those bookings live for as long as possible. That way, when you make your decision, you will be making it as close to the time as possible with the most up-to-date facts.
3. If you have not made bookings then keep a cool head. Your time may well come. Assemble all the information you need to plan the TMB/AV1. Get your itinerary planned out and write it down. Then wait. Follow all current developments both on the Coronavirus and the TMB/AV1. As soon as the refuges open, you can pounce.
4. If you plan to camp, and travel is possible, then you may be able to get onto the TMB even before the refuges are open. You would have the mountains almost to yourself. That would be an amazing experience.

​Depending upon how events play out and exactly when the refuges open, it is possible that the TMB and AV1 are the quietest they have been in decades. And that is something that I am going to see.

NEVER STOP DREAMING!!!

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